WHOOPS: Softbank is cashing out of Nvidia!
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WHOOPS: Softbank is cashing out of Nvidia! AI casino's closing, take your winnings *right now* ... or don't. Sucker. https://apnews.com/article/japan-softbank-son-nvidia-ai-chips-d8a10172850628c317a214280a4d94c9
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J Jürgen Hubert shared this topic on
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WHOOPS: Softbank is cashing out of Nvidia! AI casino's closing, take your winnings *right now* ... or don't. Sucker. https://apnews.com/article/japan-softbank-son-nvidia-ai-chips-d8a10172850628c317a214280a4d94c9
This is VERY interesting. It seems Asian investors have been buying Softbank shares precisely because those Nvidia shares (and other #AI holdings) were making Softbank into a Japanese proxy for USA AI companies.
Then in the last week or so Softbank's value has plummeted (more than 10%) because precisely because Asian investors were fleeing AI stocks.
So this move means Softbank itself is divesting from AI, both to cash out and to protect it's own share prices.
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This is VERY interesting. It seems Asian investors have been buying Softbank shares precisely because those Nvidia shares (and other #AI holdings) were making Softbank into a Japanese proxy for USA AI companies.
Then in the last week or so Softbank's value has plummeted (more than 10%) because precisely because Asian investors were fleeing AI stocks.
So this move means Softbank itself is divesting from AI, both to cash out and to protect it's own share prices.
Of course the above is contingent on them continuing to divest from AI stocks. If it turns out they *are* pumping that Nvidia money into OpenAI and the like as the article states? Then I have no idea what Softbank is up to.
Unless they know something about Nvidia no one else does. But Nvidia is the linchpin of the entire AI bubble, if it goes none of the rest will be worth a pin. So that doesn't make sense either.
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Of course the above is contingent on them continuing to divest from AI stocks. If it turns out they *are* pumping that Nvidia money into OpenAI and the like as the article states? Then I have no idea what Softbank is up to.
Unless they know something about Nvidia no one else does. But Nvidia is the linchpin of the entire AI bubble, if it goes none of the rest will be worth a pin. So that doesn't make sense either.
@jackwilliambell AIUI Softbank had some kind of option to buy a shitload of OpenAI shares if OpenAI transitioned to a for-profit model in Q4/25, ahead of OpenAI's trailed IPO in Q2/26. So it might be as simple and bone-headed as a bet that OpenAI shares will hold up long enough for Softbank to make a profit in 6-8 months' time.
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@jackwilliambell AIUI Softbank had some kind of option to buy a shitload of OpenAI shares if OpenAI transitioned to a for-profit model in Q4/25, ahead of OpenAI's trailed IPO in Q2/26. So it might be as simple and bone-headed as a bet that OpenAI shares will hold up long enough for Softbank to make a profit in 6-8 months' time.
Could be. But it doesn't seem like as good a bet as those Nvidia shares over the same period.
OTOH in business there's talk and there's action. Quite often the two will diverge greatly. Could be they are trying to avoid popping the bubble themselves until they can dump as many of their other AI holdings as possible.
Wild theory: They figure dumping Nvidia first won't pop the bubble. Yet.
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Could be. But it doesn't seem like as good a bet as those Nvidia shares over the same period.
OTOH in business there's talk and there's action. Quite often the two will diverge greatly. Could be they are trying to avoid popping the bubble themselves until they can dump as many of their other AI holdings as possible.
Wild theory: They figure dumping Nvidia first won't pop the bubble. Yet.
@jackwilliambell They have to cough up $22Bn for the OpenAI stake. Whereas Nvidia is already probably at peak value (and Softbank invested in them ages ago).
